Rachel Maddow has an oped in the NY Times today bringing her historical knowledge to this scheme that’s percolating in the swing states run by Republicans about decertifying the vote. She reminds us that back in the very close 1960 election some fringe wingnuts floated the idea of refusing to certify the results in certain states in order to give Nixon the electoral college victory over Kennedy. At the time, it wasn’t even considered but, as we know, times have changed.
She observes the most recent activity in Georgia which gives local election boards the power to challenged and overturn a valid election. And it gets more troubling every day:
On Monday, the board is expected to consider yet another revision to the rules that would afford members of county election boards an additional option for delaying or refusing certification. The rule would allow local board members to demand “all election-related documentation” before certifying the results.
Imagine an election night this November in which the two parties are trading swing-state victories. The Democrats capture Nevada, while the Republicans take Arizona. The Republicans win the big prize of Pennsylvania, while the Democrats top them in Wisconsin and Michigan. The nation is waiting on Georgia. If Georgia goes red, it’s President Trump; if Georgia goes blue, it’s President Harris.
Then, local news headlines start to circulate. There are reports of unspecified “problems” in the vote in Fulton County. And in Gwinnett County. And in DeKalb, Coffee and Spalding Counties. Republican officials are refusing to certify the results in their counties. They say they are making “reasonable inquiries.”
As legal challenges wend through the courts, a wave of disinformation, confusion and propaganda swells, fueled by unproven claims that something is amiss in these Georgia counties, and also by similar noise — and possibly also certification refusals — in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Nevada. (All have seen local Republicans try the certification refusal ruse since 2020.)
She points out that the states only have until December 11 to send official certify results to Washington but notes that nobody knows what will happen if they don’t:
The point of these certification refusals may not be to falsify or flip a result, but simply to prevent the emergence of one. If one or more states fail to produce official results, blocking any candidate from reaching 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment prescribes Gerald L.K. Smith’s dream scenario: a vote in the newly elected House of Representatives to determine the presidency. Each state delegation would get one vote; today, Republicans control 26 state delegations; Democrats control 22; and two are evenly divided.
Our democratic system is not invincible, but it is strong. Certification of election results is a ministerial responsibility that is not discretionary. Legitimate election challenges are handled with recounts and litigation, not by individual election board members. There is no loophole that allows bad-faith officials to so flummox the electoral system that they take the choice of the next president away from the American people.
But in the past three and a half years, the ad hoc certification ploys that failed to flip the last presidential election to Mr. Trump have been professionalized and systematized by Republican officials and their allies. A recent report in The Times quoted an official with the conservative Heritage Foundation saying that “the conditions” in the country are now such that “most reasonable policymakers and officials cannot in good conscience certify an election.” Michael Whatley, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, has declined to answer when asked if the party intends to try to block vote certifications.
I sure wish the race could open up a bit and provide a large enough margin that this wouldn’t be a possibility. But if the swing states are as close as they have been we’re going to have a fight.
There was a time when a big popular vote win would allay these fears simply because both parties believed in democracy and in a case where the electoral college was tight the loser would easily concede knowing that the will of the voters across the country had chosen their opponent. Republicans have made it clear that they don’t care about the spirit or the letter of elections law. If they can game the system, they will do it. lt worked in 2000 and might have worked in 2021 if they could have gotten Mike Pence on board. Of course they will do it again.