A double-digit increase in popularity, rising Democratic enthusiasm and an early edge for representing “change” have vaulted Vice President Kamala Harris forward and reshuffled the 2024 presidential contest, according to a new national NBC News poll.
With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from July’s poll, when Trump was ahead by 2 points before President Joe Biden’s exit.
Kamala’s favorability has jumped 16 points since July, “the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-President George W. Bush’s standing surged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.”
Harris also holds the advantage over Trump on being seen as competent and effective, as well as on having the mental and physical health to be president — a reversal from Trump’s leads on those qualities when he was matched up against Biden.
And in a contest between a sitting vice president and an ex-president, featuring an electorate that overwhelmingly thinks the U.S. is “on the wrong track,” Harris has the upper hand on which candidate better represents change and which candidate can get the country headed in the right direction.
That last is because we feel like we’ve been forced to deal with Orange Julius Caesar for at least a century.
A little tidbit:
In an expanded ballot with third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% — with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. (Respondents were only able to pick from the major third-party candidates who will actually appear on the ballot in their states.)
As for “issues” people still inexplicably think Trump will be better on inflation and toughness on the border:
Harris’ best results are on protecting immigrant rights (where she has a 28-point lead over Trump), abortion (+21 points), having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+20 points), having the right temperament to be president (+16 points) and representing change (+9 points).
By comparison, Trump’s biggest leads are on securing the border (+21), the economy (+9) and dealing with the cost of living (+8).
However:
Those current Trump advantages, however, are all down from when Biden was still in the race. When NBC News put those questions to voters about Trump and Biden in January, Trump led the president by 35 points on the issue of securing the border and controlling immigration and by 22 points on dealing with the economy.
In April, voters gave Trump a 22-point edge over Biden on dealing with inflation and the cost of living, too.
This is huge:
In July, 32% of registered voters had a positive view of Harris, versus 50% who saw her in a negative light (-18 net rating) — almost identical to Biden’s rating.
But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% positive, 45% negative (+3).
No major-party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of the NBC News poll has seen this kind of jump in popularity in an election.
All in all, a very positive result. I still can’t believe it’s this close but I’ll take it.