Getting ready for 2026, 2028 election disruptions
The difficulty in anticipating Republican ploys for subverting elections, I’ve said repeatedly, is that it almost takes a criminal mind to counter one.
TPM this morning reports on efforts by Democrats’ “Red Team” to game out possible Republican moves for which Democrats need a counteroffensive plan ready. Rep. Joe Morelle (D-NY), the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, is a key player:
The task force has identified “about 150 threats,” he said, adding, “So, each one of those we go through and we have sort of a matrix — what we think the likelihood is of this, whatever it is, happening, and then … what’s the damage that it could cause?”
“So, some things could be very low likelihood, but a high impact. Other things could be highly likely that they’ll happen, but we think are relatively low impact,” Morelle explained. “Then of course, what you want to do is figure out how do we prevent that from happening and then, if it does happen, how do we respond to it?”
Morelle discussed his work on war-gaming potential election disruption scenarios for the midterms and planning an aggressive response in a TPM Special Report podcast. You can watch the interview in full here. Our conversation, which took place earlier this month, is the most in-depth look thus far at House Democrats’ efforts to confront threats to the vote.
Some of the scenarios Morelle listed “include: intimidation by federal agents near polling places; misinformation being spread to voters; executive branch agencies trying to purge voter rolls or seize local election infrastructure; interference with state certification of congressional races; and even a potential floor fight on Jan. 3, 2027.”
But all of that we’ve seen before. What concerns me (not having a criminal mind) is the kind of cleverly devious schemes Republicans hatch that catch me blindside. Like trying to void 60,000 votes after the election is over. Frankly, I’d expect the Red Team to avoid public discussion of crafty shit like this that they’ve considered Republicans might roll out. Don’t want either to give them ideas or tip them off that we’ve anticipated their moves.
Morelle agrees, saying, “I don’t want to give the Trump administration any more ideas, nor do I want to, you know, signal what we’re doing in response to it.”
But it’s nice to know that they’re on it:
“We really started several months ago planning for the midterms. And again, you know, when the president says some of the things that he says, that sends off alerts. I mean, you cannot help but pay attention to someone who says, ‘I should have called out the National Guard,’” said Morelle. “That’s jarring. I mean, never before has a president of the United States said that, or … at one point he said, ‘I’m not even sure why we need an election. Why do we need a midterm election?’ Like, wow, no one ever says these things, but you can’t, by the same token, you can’t sleep on it.”
They’re preparing a toolkit for members and local officials, Morelle said, outlining “local procedures, deadlines, and issues in their districts to help them alert voters on how to register and get their ballots in early.”
“One of those strategies in my mind that helps us deal with intimidation at polls is, tell people, ‘vote early, mail in your ballot,’” Morelle said. “Do it as soon as you can. Check your registration status to make sure that the Department of Homeland Security hasn’t purged you or anybody else has tried to purge you and check your registration status in the first available moment. Mark your ballot, put it in the mail and send it in because they can’t intimidate people if they’re not there at the polling place.”
Overall, Morelle believes civic engagement and voter participation is crucial to confronting threats to democracy. He invoked the work of historian and author Heather Cox Richardson, who has written extensively about how apathy and disengagement have enabled the rise of fascism.
It’s like a zombie, isn’t it?