The WaPo’s Philip Bump goes over all the familiar 2016 Clinton vs Trump ground and then discusses where it looks different this time:
2020 is a different year with a different opponent and a different context. It still seems safe to assume, though, that Trump’s path to reelection is not a particularly broad one, given his static approval ratings, and, therefore, that he will want to do his best to hold his 2016 support as he seeks a second term. With the general election upon us after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) dropped out of the Democratic primary race on Wednesday, a number of recent polls show Trump’s support in a head-to-head contest against former vice president Joe Biden is lower than it was against Clinton on Election Day four years ago.
Four polls from The Economist-YouGov, CNN-SSRS, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University — all conducted before Sanders left the race — show Biden with a national lead over Trump. Monmouth has the closest margin, with Biden up four points. CNN’s poll is the widest, with Biden enjoying an 11-point lead. On average, the four polls give Biden an eight-point lead — six points more than the two-point margin by which Trump lost four years ago.
Why that shift? Because a number of demographic groups now show more support for Biden against Trump than they did for Clinton against Trump in the last election.
One of the most notable changes is that eight-point shift toward Biden among women. That overlaps with the huge 25-point shift seen among whites with a college degree; white women with college degrees have shifted dramatically against Trump, helping to power the Democratic takeover of the House in 2018.
Many of the recent polls used different age divisions, making it tricky to average group poll data and then compare it to the 2016 exit polls. But voters over 65 were included in most of the recent polls. In two, Trump is losing to Biden with those voters; in the third, he’s tied. That’s a big shift from 2016, when he beat Clinton by seven points with the oldest voting group.
That last part will surprise people, I’d guess. But it shouldn’t. They were the most likely Americans to be put off by a woman nominee, especially the Independent men. Those people almost surely like Biden better.
Polls now aren’t all that meaningful but this movement almost across all demographics is.