Are leading Democrats the last frogs in the pot to realize they are slowly boiling?
Their need to uphold norms and reluctance to play political hardball means underdeveloped muscles will not be there when needed both in state capitols and on Capitol Hill. And when is right now. Too many seem not to realize Republicans threw out the rulebook. How many have the chops to play as rough as you can bet Republicans will?
Beltway Democrats fought pretty hard against the Brett Kavanaugh nomination and during the Trump impeachment. But pretty much by traditional rules. Meanwhile, Trump abused the legal system not to win court cases, but to stall long enough to “win” by attrition. Republican senators’ “180” on approving Supreme Court justices during a presidential election year proves again that bad faith is the only kind they practice.
Former RNC chair Michael Steele over the weekend asked Democrats a fundamental question going into this election and its aftermath: Are you built for this?
Are you ready to do what you need to do between now and January 20th? Because this isn’t just about November 3rd … Are you built for this? Because if you’re not ready to play this — I’ve been saying it from the very beginning — this is an asymmetrical game we’re in. This is not conventional politics. Stop treating Donald Trump as if he’s an actual president of the United States. He is not. He’s playing one on TV, literally. Speak to that. And so, if you’re not ready to engage against McConnell, against Lindsey Graham — because let me tell you what happens— Graham and McConnell come back to the Senate, Donald Trump goes back to the White House? It’s game, set, match, baby. There’s no stopping anything. So, if you’re not built to do what you need to do between now and January 20th, then stand down and let someone else step in. Because there’s too much on the line.
I’m not sanguine about it. Plus, I have no idea who Steele means by “someone else.”
Slate’s Jeremy Stahl runs down what might be ahead after Nov. 3. Trump might again use the courts to stall certification of presidential electors long enough to toss deciding the presidency to the House of Representatives. Scenarios exist for such a contingent election:
So how might Democrats fight back this time around? To answer that question, it’s important to understand the mechanics of the contingent election—which can be triggered by any scenario in which a majority is not reached, such as unresolved disputes over individual electoral slates. In a contingent election, the House votes on the next president by a majority vote of state delegations. This means Alaska’s one member would get one vote, all of the members from Alabama would combine to get one vote, all of the members from Arizona would combine to get one vote, and so on. A candidate would need to win 26 of 50 state delegations to be declared president. (In the Senate, meanwhile, each senator would vote respectively on the next vice president, with 51 votes necessary for victory.)
Currently, Republicans control 26 state delegations and are favored by Sabato’s site to retain that advantage. Democrats currently control 22, and the remaining two are essentially tied. Democrats need to win four additional House delegations to make Biden president in the case of a 269–269 Electoral College tie, but would need just two delegations to prevent Trump from becoming president if Pennsylvania—with a 9–9 split in the current delegation—remains tied. To get to 26 delegations after this election, Democrats would need to retain competitive seats in Iowa and Minnesota, and sweep a number of potentially competitive seats in four states from a pool of Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Montana, Texas, and maybe Alaska.
Trump could still win, in theory, even if he loses the popular vote “by a 4- to 5-point margin.”
Speaker Nancy Pelosi has cards to play to stop a Trump win in the House:
Suppose the delegation count is 24–24, with Republicans leading slightly in disputed tipping point races in two remaining states. Here is where Pelosi could step in and show herself to be the Democrats’ answer to McConnell. Article 1, Section 5 of the Constitution gives the House majority the authority to “judge” any contested elections. Historically, the House has used that power to refuse to seat new members in contested races pending an investigation or a new vote. In 2018, for example, the House refused to seat the Republican candidate in North Carolina’s 9th District after a GOP operative was caught committing fraud to swing the race.
If there’s a challenge in any decisive House district—say, over issues with mail-in ballots not being counted, or disparities in votes being disqualified for signature mismatch, or ballots getting lost in the mail—the House could simply vote not to seat the candidate claiming victory pending an inquiry, even if a given state certifies that victory.
Stahl has more at the link above. But before going down the what-if rabbit hole, activists on the Left need to put more focus on boosting turnout than on more theoretical threats like machine hacking the way the Right fixates on voter fraud. Unless there is a Dr. Diabolical out there with an electoral version of The Hitchiker’s Guide’s infinite improbability drive, what could happen in theory is still highly improbable to overwhelm massive voter turnout.
There is no indication from history or current polling to suggest voters under 45 will turn out in the numbers their elders put up. So, perhaps that too is a what-if rabbit hole. Still, younger nonvoters have the numbers to put the final nail in the coffin of the Trump presidency. IF. THEY. VOTE.
A colleague with more computing horsepower is updating my graph from 2018 with final vote counts and creating a version from the 2016 election (more comparable to this year). Year after year, these voting patterns are consistent, sadly. But the growth potential is there. If citizens under 45 only turned out in numbers comparable to those of their elders, they could run this joint, and in no time take over the Democratic Party and leadership in Congress.
It is one thing for critics on the sidelines to ask if the party is built for this. It is another to step up and show them how it’s done. They could be Steele’s someones to step in.
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