Rachel Bitecover has a very interesting poll and analysis of our current state. It’s not reassuring. She starts off with an in-depth historical look back at how we got to this hyper-polarized place.
And then we come to today:
It seems important to restate, in the starkest terms possible, that America is coming out of an election cycle in which its sitting president, ultimately supported by a broad number of his partisan peers in the congress and in the senate, came dangerously close to executing an illegal coup. Trump’s coup was attempted along multiple pathways- none of which were vigorously denounced and disavowed by his own partisans. Its an extraordinary sentence to write, let alone to consider in its full context- had Trump and the Republican Party’s efforts in the House succeeded, American democracy as it had existed for her 234 years would have ended. Yet, it is the party that attempted this coup who feels the election was illegitimate and who are aggressively rolling back access to the ballot box.
Despite this, the rest of the nation seems incapable of truly coming to terms with the severity of these events and realities, which are of course embedded in the likewise extraordinary context of a badly mishandled global pandemic that has now killed half a million Americans. The pandemic set in during the fourth year of a presidency that saw regular violations of norms, ethics, and even laws on what seemed to be a daily basis. Yet, despite this, then-President Trump’s near universal support among Republicans held perfectly firm, never sagging below the 90% favorability mark aside from a brief dip after Jan. 6th that now seems to have reset. The rest of the country waited in vain for a “Nixon Moment” that never came, even after the president inspired (at the least) an armed insurrection on Article II in an effort to avoid having Joe Biden’s election certified.
Lost in the national narrative is this basic fact- such events should not, could not happen in a healthy, functional democracy. In a healthy democracy, approval of a leader is contingent on performance, at least to an extent. The inelasticity of Trump’s approval data can only be produced when the democratic accountability function of a democracy has failed, especially given the objective extremity of Trump’s conduct in office. That so many objectively corrupt and/or incompetent events occurred between 2015 and 2020 and culminated in the way they did (a coup attempt) with virtually no affect on Republican voter assessments, American democracy is facing a five alarm fire.
With the collapse of old power paradigms challenging democratic stability here, and abroad, and with foreign adversaries and domestic entities seeking to manipulate western freedoms to compound these tensions, now more than ever Americans concerned with preserving democracy and maintaining the “American Experiment” must stand vanguard against the forces of authoritarianism and corruption which seek to undermine our democracy.
If those who seek to undermine democracy can be identified, we must be unafraid to name them. We cannot let the need to be “non-partisan” allow us to slip into the abyss. Freedom-loving Americans of every stripe must lock arms and prepare to work diligently to preserve our democracy.
This survey, generously paid for my donations large and small, is an effort to assist in that effort.
Summary of Survey Results:
This survey of Georgia voters exploring the topic of “democratic crisis” and tolerance for radical views finds that 84% of Georgia voters say American democracy is either “struggling” or “fragile.” However, even after the January 6th Capitol riot, efforts by Donald Trump & the GOP to disrupt the transfer of power, and other erosions of democratic norms during the Trump Era, it is Republicans (58%) who are significantly more likely to report that American democracy is “fragile” rather than Democrats (37%) and Independents (45%).
This disproportionate view of a “fragile” American democracy among Republicans may be contributing to radicalism within the Republican Party. The survey also reveals a concerning disconnect in the ability of Republicans to recognize specific erosions of democratic stability experienced in the U.S.
Indeed, responses to specific survey questions meant to measure attitudes toward democratic stability reveal significant evidence that vast majorities of Republicans disproportionately hold views that undermine democratic stability. Ironically, this suggests Republicans’ views about democratic “fragility” may be contributing to a party-wide tolerance for anti-democratic actions.
Despite recounts, audits, and court challenges verifying the accuracy, reliability, and integrity of the 2020 election nationwide and in Georgia, just 53% of Georgians “agree” that Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. This low percent is driven by massive party divides. While 92% of Democrats and 61% of Independents agree that Biden won legitimately, just 12% of Republicans agree.
Similarly, just 51% of Georgia voters agree that the event at the Capitol on January 6th was “an armed insurrection.” Although 81% of Democrats and 59% of Independents agree, just 19% of Republicans see the Capitol riot in this lens.
When prompted with a follow-up question asking if knowing that Vice President Mike Pence was targeted by some rioters for assassination made it more likely to view the riots as an “armed insurrection” 40% of all respondents report it does. However, the party divide ensures with 61% of Democrats, 43% of Independents, and 19% of Republicans indicating it makes them “more likely” to view it as an “armed insurrection.”
Voters were asked whether they supported the removal of Georgia congresswomen Marjorie Taylor Greene’s committee assignments due to her views on conspiracy theories such as Q’Anon. 46% supported the move compared to 34% who opposed it. 76% of Democrats and 51% of Independents supported the move compared to just 15% of Georgia Republicans.
A strong majority of Georgia Republicans, 61%, opposed Greene’s removal indicating significant tolerance of extremist views within the Republican Party’s voter coalition in Georgia. Like other questions about less well-known political figures, 21% of respondents deferred answering the question.
Georgians were asked whether they supported the use of metal detectors at the entrances of the House and Senate floors to enforce the firearms bans for those areas since January 6th- an issue that has become a flashpoint for some Republican lawmakers. 65% of Georgia voters support the use of the metal detectors including 43% of Republicans. 87% of Democrats and 71% of Independents support this policy.
Given the proliferation of laws meant to restrict “ease of access” to voting in states controlled by Republicans across the country and specifically in Georgia in the wake of the 2020 cycle and Trump’s “Big Lie,” the survey explores Georgians’ receptivity to the manipulation of voting access to improve the electoral conditions for one’s own party.
Overall, just 10% of Georgians are willing to explicitly agree with a statement asking if they support “limiting access to voting for some people if it helps the party you support win more elections.”
72% of respondents indicate they oppose such efforts with 71% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans opposed (as compared to 84% of Independents). Robust lack of support for limiting access to voting to benefit one’s party in principle by Republican identifier contrasted to the specific efforts to limit access to voting being considered by Republican legislatures is an interesting finding that encourages additional research. As with other controversial questions, nearly 20% of respondents deferred answering this question, with little variation by party.
The data also reveal significant education polarization regarding tolerance for democratic norms and the ability to recognize democratic “erosion,” with sharp divides in “democratic tolerance” between college educated (or greater) voters and those with only high school educations. Exposure to post-high school education correlates with increasing support for democratic norms and higher likelihood of recognizing recent democratic erosions.