Do the work. Score the points.
Noah Berlatsky of Public Notice reflects on Tuesday’s elections (bolding mine):
Some 48 hours ago, pundits were rushing to explain how, why, where, and exactly to what extent the Democratic Party is doomed.
A New York Times/Sienna poll released last weekend showed President Joe Biden catastrophically trailing indicted orange gasbag of hatred former President Donald Trump in virtually every key swing state. According to the poll, Trump leads Biden by five points in Arizona, four in Pennsylvania, six in Georgia, and 11 in Nevada. Analysts like Nate Silver and Matt Yglesias made panicky noises, condemning Dems for not mounting a serious primary challenge to the incumbent. There was weeping, there was gnashing of teeth.
And then, we had an actual election.
Tuesday night’s results are difficult to square with the “Biden and Democrats are doomed” narrative. In an off-year election, with the incumbent president’s approval rating mired below 40 percent, you would normally expect the president’s party to be stomped, crushed, spindled, and obliterated.
But instead, Democrats did fine. In fact, they did better than fine, and then even better than that. Tuesday looked a lot like a blue wave, with Democrats romping to victory in blue and purple states and overperforming dramatically in red ones.
It’s difficult to predict what this means for 2024. But we know that in 2022 and now in 2023, Biden’s low approval rating appeared to be entirely disconnected from Democratic performance. That should at least give the likes of Silver and Yglesias a moment’s pause in their punditing of apocalypse.
After spending four hours each morning commenting on the day’s political news, lately I’m reworking For The Win for 2024. As much as I’m an admirer of my friend Anat Shenker-Osorio’s messaging research, in the end progressives actually have to put points on the board. It’s not as sexy as messaging or punditry or political philosophy, but it’s where the rubber meets the road (or whatever metaphor you’d prefer). For that we have to get out of our heads:
Winning in your head is like bringing sports visualization training to the Olympics and thinking you’ll be competitive when you show up with no conditioning and no skills.
Many races next fall will be closer than what we saw last night. (Democrat Andy Beshear won in Kentucky by 5 points; Ohio Issue 1 passed by 13.) Democrats next year have to execute plays and score points (votes, not sick burns). Candidates and campaigns try to motivate voters to get off their couches and get to the polls. (Target better, maybe?) Part of motivating voters is message-driven, sure, but actual scoring comes down to mechanics, logistics, and execution:
The job of county committees is a political version of the Last Mile problem in telecommunications. All the high-profile effort and capital spending goes into clearing rights-of-way, erecting towers, and stringing lines. The Last Mile problem is the less conspicuous work of hooking up end users one … by one … by one because that is where companies stop spending money and start making bank.
The only thing that counts on Election Day is how many bubbles voters fill in on their ballots for Democrats. Voters actually have to show up and execute the documents. This isn’t like Trump declassifying documents with his mind. Those voters (many of them) will arrive aware of only a handful of the races and candidates printed on their ballots. Without your help, they’ll leave down-ballot races blank — school board, city council, county commission, etc.
Please contact your local county Democratic committee and ask about their 2024 get-out-the-vote program. Work the phones, knock the doors. Be the smiling face reassuring voters as you hand them a sample ballot outside the polling station.
It’s too late to talk policy. Uncertain voters are looking for reassurance. If they trust you, they will vote with you. That’s how it works. Trust me.