Dan Pfeiffer talks about the public’s view of Trump’s mental acuity in his newsletter today:
The fact that Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in news reports from The New York Times and other sources is puzzling for many of us. How could a chaotic criminal who spews conspiracy theories be on the cusp of returning to the White House? There’s not just one simple answer to how we ended up in this situation; it’s a combination of Biden’s low approval rating, divisions in the democratic coalition, dissatisfaction with the economy, a historic level of cynicism and institutional distrust, and radicalization of the Republican Party. The polarization and demographic makeup of the Electoral College mean that upcoming elections will continue to be closely contested. However, one specific finding in The New York Times/Siena College poll explains Trump’s strength and offers a particular strategy for defeating him again in 2024.
There is no sugarcoating it: Joe Biden’s age is a significant political obstacle. Many people across the country think he’s too old for the presidency, and even among Democrats, a lot of folks tell pollsters they’d rather have a younger candidate. In one sense, Biden’s age is an insoluble problem. There is no way to make him younger; he will get older as the campaign continues. Certainly, there will be high-leverage moments such as the State of the Union, the Democratic Convention, and the debates where the President can showcase the stamina and vigor required for the job.
There has been a lot of internal debate among the Democratic Party about how to approach the age issue. Handle it with humor, lean into it by emphasizing that wisdom comes with experience, highlight the younger members of Biden’s team, or ignore it entirely. There are merits to all of those approaches. But I think the best way to defuse concerns about Biden’s age is to focus on Trump’s temperament.
Trump’s Temperament Is No Longer the Issue
One particular quote from a participant in The New York Times poll has lingered in my thoughts:
Ms. Fermin, who immigrated from the Dominican Republic as a teenager, worried that Mr. Biden’s immigration policies have put additional economic strain on the country. She voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 over concerns about Mr. Trump’s temperament, but this time around her concerns are largely focused on Mr. Biden. “Biden is too old and doesn’t have the capacity mentally,” she said. “We need somebody stronger. I think Trump can deliver this time.”
Trump’s temperament—his erratic behavior—was always his biggest weakness. I remember seeing focus group reactions in 2019 and 2020 where many voters’ biggest concerns about Trump were his tweets. I know that sounds ridiculous. I thought so at the time. But Trump spending all of his time airing petty grievances on social media was a metaphor for what concerned voters about his temperament. He was focused on the wrong things at the wrong time,and his behavior was both alarming for swing voters and embarrassing for his supporters.
But The New York Times poll makes it clear that Trump’s temperament is no longer a driving issue for voters. In 2020, Biden had a 19-point advantage on temperament. In 2023, it’s only four points.
People have forgotten because they haven’t seen him! My God, just his behavior in the courthouse steps is crazy enough but nobody’s seeing it because the media has decided to protect he public’s gently eyes and ears from his antics because well, it’s unseemly. YES IT’S UNSEEMLY! He’s a monster. But unless people can see it with their own eyes they won’t believe it.
Temperament? How about this?
How many people saw that? Only those who love Trump. Nobody even half way normal could look at that and think “well, at least he’s strong…” No he’ s fucking nuts.
Pfeiffer points out in his piece that He was banned by most social media as well but that isn’t the only problem:
In 2023, Trump resurfaced with his legal issues and presidential campaign. He has been reinstated on all major social media platforms. However, there are indications that most Americans might not be fully aware of what Trump is communicating. One reason is that many people don’t follow the news at this early campaign stage. According to Pew Research, the number of Americans who say they follow the news closely has dropped 14 percent since right before the 2018 elections.
People have tuned out because it’s just so awful. It’s also the reason they assume the country is in hell even though they think their own personal circumstances are good as is their state’s. They aren’t getting the full picture anymore.
Secondly, in previous times, individuals who were not actively seeking political news would still come across it inadvertently. Open up Facebook to check in on your nieces or pop on X (formerly Twitter) to see how people are reacting to an NBA trade, and you would almost always see some political news posts. That is no longer the case. Both platforms have tweaked their algorithms to show people less news—specifically, less political news. According to an Axios report based on data from Similarweb, referrals to news sites from Facebook and X have plummeted since Trump left office.
How helpful.
Finally, as I detailed in this post, the news media is not adequately covering the most outrageous statements made by Trump. While political enthusiasts like us may be inundated with Trump’s unconventional remarks, it’s likely that most Americans haven’t been exposed to more than a minute of Trump’s speeches, rallies, town halls, or interviews since before January 6th.
They have self-righteously declared that “there is a cost” to them personally if they show Trump to their audience. I have never understood what that means. Unless you truly believe that everyone in this country is either a delicate flower who will run from the room if faced with reality or they are so craven and stupid that mere exposure to that cretin will convert them to his cult, it seems to me that decent people need to see what he says and what he plans to do over and over and over again.
His lies are activating the craven and stupid and only the truth will motivate the decent people to vote.
Pfeiffer says the Democrats must focus on Trump’s mental fitness and I couldn’t agree more:
While Trump has made some gains in how people view his temperament and mental fitness, the biggest shift has been growing concerns about Biden. These shifts are undoubtedly related to the dramatic increase in concern about the President’s age. In this case, it seems that the only way around is through. The President will have to use the campaign to assuage those concerns. More performances like this great economic speech in Belvedere, Illinois, will go a long way.
The focus has been on Biden for more than two years now. There has been an extensive, messy conversation about his age and fitness for office. Unfortunately, these conversations have drowned out discussion of the President’s voluminous record of achievement. It’s time for Democrats to try to shift some of that focus back to Trump. We need to remind Americans why they hated Trump in the first place. Certain voters who backed Trump in 2016 but shifted to supporting Biden in 2020 due to apprehensions about Trump’s behavior are now contemplating a return to supporting Trump. Millions of people became politically active after 2016 because they perceived Trump as a distinct threat, but some have now returned to the sidelines as their concerns have diminished.
I understand why Democrats started their advertising campaign with positive spots about Biden and his record. Some of that should continue. All of the polling shows that voters like Biden more when they learn about what he has done. There is an information vacuum to fill. However, it’s time to start putting Trump’s erratic behavior and deranged rants back into people’s social media feeds. This can be done with campaign ads and organic content created by progressive allies and shared by all of us.
There is no need to gild the lily with ads filled with ominous music and fear-inducing voiceovers. Just show people Trump is in his own words. The Biden-Harris campaign social media accounts have begun doing exactly that, and we can help them by sharing their content within our networks.
The shared clips shouldn’t be the ones where Trump does his tinpot dictator act. They should be the moments where he acts like a clown. The best way to defeat a wannabe strongman is to make him look like a joke. Increasing concerns about Trump’s mental acuity rise will help Biden defuse the age issue with voters.
If you are reading this newsletter, you don’t need anyone to remind you that Donald Trump is an unhinged lunatic who should not come within 1,000 miles of the nuclear codes. But most Americans have barely thought about Trump in years. Haven’t seen him speak or post on social media. They haven’t heard of Truth Social. In this new media environment, the press and the social media platforms won’t do that work for us. If we want the campaign to be about Donald Trump, we must make it so. There’s no reason to wait any longer.
As you know, I share both the tin-pot dictator and the clownish clips liberally and I’ve been doing it ever since he came on the scene. People need to know what he’s saying. Hiding your head in the sand and pretending that he doesn’t exist hasn’t worked out so well.
I encourage you to send those clips to people you know or post them on your social media feeds. It’s important to remind people who he is because it’s obvious many of them have been subject to the propaganda that his first term was actually a rousing success and others have forgotten who he really is.
He’s gotten worse people and his thirst for revenge and attachment to the fascist members of his MAGA movement is stronger than ever.