I had been hearing a lot from the punditocracy that the Resistance had died during the second Trump term but it turns out they were wrong. Very wrong. G. Elliott Morris has this:
In the first year of Donald Trump’s first term as president in 2017, the share of Americans calling themselves Republicans (or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party) dropped just 2 percentage points — from 42% in 2016 to 40% by Q4 of 2017. I predict it will surprise many people to hear that the Democrats didn’t actually change their advantage in party ID much at all in Trump’s first term, expanding their advantage to +7 in 2018 from +6 in 2016.
In Trump’s second term, however, the Republican Party is shedding members at a much higher pace. Gallup released its latest party identification data this week, and the numbers show Republican identification dropped from 46% in 2024 to just 40% in Q4 of 2025 — a 6-point decline, triple the 2-point drop during Trump’s first term.
This week’s Chart of the Week is: Backlash to Trump has been more severe in his second term.
[…]
Here’s the trajectory of leaned party ID in Trump’s second term, quarter by quarter:
- Q4 2024: R+4 (before inauguration)
- Q1 2025: Tied
- Q2 2025: D+3
- Q3 2025: D+7
- Q4 2025: D+8
That D+8 reading is now a recent record for the Democratic Party. If it holds for all of 2026, D+8 will be the largest lead for the party — the largest lead for either party — since 2009.
Trump’s 12-point decline in party ID margin (a 6-point decrease in share GOP) since Q4 2024 is 3x the decline in his first term.
There’s a lot more at his Substack which I think is going to be a vital resource in this election year.
The upshot is that Democrats appear to be going into this cycle looking pretty good. The resistance is alive after all and as much as everyone says they hate the party (and they do) they certainly seem to be willing to identify with them more than they have in many years and will likely vote for them in November.
I don’t want to make any predictions. This era is way too volatile. But it’s something to build upon for sure.