C’mon people, now
Another little data point to consider:
Our most recent NBC News poll contained one more set of numbers about how November’s upcoming election doesn’t look like your traditional midterm.
Persuadable voters are breaking towards the party controlling the White House and Congress, which is unlike what we saw in 2010, 2018 or even earlier this year.
Our poll defines “persuadable voters” — representing about 25% of the sample — as registered voters who are not core Democrats or Republicans, meaning that they’re either hard independents or Democrats/Republicans who aren’t reliable party backers.
These voters are disproportionately males, ideological moderates, self-identified independents and those living in the exurbs.
In 2010, our merged polls showed Republicans with a 13-point advantage among these persuadable voters, 38%-25%.
In 2018, our merged polls found Democrats with an 8-point lead, 39%-31%.
And in our combined NBC News polls from January, March and May, Republicans were ahead by 6 points among persuadable voters, 39%-33%.
But in our poll this month, Democrats — the party in power — were up by 3 points among these voters, 40%-37%.
Now this is just one poll. It’s also a group (25% of all registered voters) that has a higher margin of error.
Still, it’s another data point to consider in our future polls heading int November — along with enthusiasm, President Biden’s approval rating and the overall generic ballot.
Males, moderate, and independents living in the exurbs. Except for moderates, this is not the groups I would expect to be moving to the Dems. I’m not totally convinced by this but if the numbers hold up, it definitely says something.